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關于2016年煤炭市場前景的分析判斷

更新時間:2018-02-22

宏觀經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)(jiang)繼續(xu)(xu)(xu)放緩。世界經(jing)濟(ji)仍(reng)在(zai)調整(zheng)分化(hua)(hua),復蘇乏(fa)力(li),主要(yao)經(jing)濟(ji)體需(xu)求萎縮,大(da)宗商品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)大(da)幅(fu)下(xia)滑,對我(wo)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)影(ying)響深遠(yuan)。國(guo)(guo)內(nei)經(jing)濟(ji)一(yi)(yi)些深層次矛盾(dun)和(he)問題不(bu)斷(duan)顯現,投資(zi)、工業(ye)下(xia)行(xing)(xing)勢(shi)頭仍(reng)在(zai)延續(xu)(xu)(xu),傳統(tong)(tong)動能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)持續(xu)(xu)(xu)減弱,市場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求總體不(bu)振,經(jing)濟(ji)下(xia)行(xing)(xing)壓(ya)力(li)仍(reng)然較大(da)。預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)經(jing)濟(ji)運(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)比2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)更加(jia)(jia)困難。非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)(jiang)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)發(fa)展(zhan)。據電(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)數據,預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)底發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機超(chao)過14.7億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa),其中(zhong)水電(dian)3.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa),非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)占(zhan)(zhan)比35%,兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提高(gao)了(le)4個百分點。非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)的快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長,將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)擠占(zhan)(zhan)電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)消(xiao)費的空間。主要(yao)耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)產(chan)品(pin)產(chan)量可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)還(huan)將(jiang)(jiang)下(xia)降。受全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)低速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)1%左(zuo)右,2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)1-3%)及非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長的影(ying)響,火(huo)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)還(huan)將(jiang)(jiang)下(xia)降,預(yu)(yu)計(ji)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)火(huo)電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)降到(dao)4400小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)下(xia)降300小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)下(xia)降到(dao)4150小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。另(ling)外(wai),鋼鐵(tie)和(he)水泥等高(gao)耗(hao)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)品(pin)產(chan)量已經(jing)基本達到(dao)峰值,需(xu)求都已出現下(xia)降。煤(mei)(mei)炭消(xiao)耗(hao)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)下(xia)降。國(guo)(guo)內(nei)煤(mei)(mei)炭產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)仍(reng)將(jiang)(jiang)過剩。2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)(mei)炭采選業(ye)固(gu)定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)累計(ji)投資(zi)3.6萬億(yi)元(yuan),新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)了(le)大(da)量產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。目前(qian)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)(mei)炭產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)超(chao)過40億(yi)噸(dun),在(zai)建(jian)(jian)項目規(gui)模10.7億(yi)噸(dun),這些產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)將(jiang)(jiang)加(jia)(jia)劇市場(chang)(chang)供大(da)于求的壓(ya)力(li)。煤(mei)(mei)炭進(jin)口(kou)的壓(ya)力(li)仍(reng)將(jiang)(jiang)存在(zai)。國(guo)(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)價(jia)格(ge)大(da)幅(fu)下(xia)降,國(guo)(guo)際(ji)煤(mei)(mei)炭市場(chang)(chang)整(zheng)體寬松,國(guo)(guo)際(ji)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)還(huan)將(jiang)(jiang)低位運(yun)(yun)行(xing)(xing),特別是(shi)隨著《中(zhong)澳自貿協定(ding)》的簽訂實施(shi),《中(zhong)俄煤(mei)(mei)炭合作(zuo)路線(xian)圖》的繼續(xu)(xu)(xu)實施(shi),進(jin)口(kou)量可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)。能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)基礎(chu)設施(shi)建(jian)(jian)設步(bu)(bu)伐加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai),改變了(le)傳統(tong)(tong)的煤(mei)(mei)炭運(yun)(yun)銷(xiao)格(ge)局。一(yi)(yi)是(shi)特高(gao)壓(ya)輸電(dian)線(xian)路加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)發(fa)展(zhan)。截止到(dao)目前(qian),我(wo)國(guo)(guo)已建(jian)(jian)成了(le)9條(tiao)特高(gao)壓(ya)輸電(dian)線(xian)路,另(ling)有(you)(you)7條(tiao)在(zai)建(jian)(jian)。二是(shi)鐵(tie)路運(yun)(yun)輸能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)繼續(xu)(xu)(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)。新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)鐵(tie)路運(yun)(yun)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)10億(yi)噸(dun)以上,進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)(bu)加(jia)(jia)大(da)了(le)晉(jin)陜蒙和(he)新(xin)疆等地區煤(mei)(mei)炭外(wai)運(yun)(yun)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)。三(san)是(shi)港口(kou)轉運(yun)(yun)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)不(bu)斷(duan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)。環渤海五港(秦皇島、天津、黃驊(hua)、曹妃甸(dian)、京唐)現有(you)(you)吞(tun)吐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)6.3億(yi)噸(dun)(2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實際(ji)發(fa)運(yun)(yun)煤(mei)(mei)炭了(le)6.1億(yi)噸(dun)),還(huan)有(you)(you)3.4億(yi)噸(dun)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)正(zheng)在(zai)建(jian)(jian)設中(zhong)。我(wo)國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)(mei)炭傳統(tong)(tong)的運(yun)(yun)銷(xiao)格(ge)局發(fa)生了(le)很大(da)改變,原有(you)(you)的區域(yu)煤(mei)(mei)炭銷(xiao)售格(ge)局正(zheng)在(zai)被打(da)破,區位優勢(shi)和(he)煤(mei)(mei)種優勢(shi)的差異越(yue)來越(yue)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao),“市場(chang)(chang)一(yi)(yi)體”、“價(jia)格(ge)趨同”的特征正(zheng)在(zai)形成,開采成本優勢(shi)日益凸(tu)顯。

    總的來看,2016年(nian)我國(guo)煤炭市(shi)場(chang)面臨的外部環境更(geng)加嚴峻,煤炭消費可能將繼續下(xia)(xia)降,市(shi)場(chang)預計將繼續呈現供大于求的態勢(shi),價格下(xia)(xia)行的壓力依然較大。

    


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